Prospect of soda ash market in 2024

　　In 2023, the soda ash market experienced great changes, and the price fluctuation was obviously intensified. This paper mainly analyzes the changes of soda ash market in 2023, and looks forward to the changes and unchanged in 2024.

　　I. Important changes in soda ash market in 2023

　　In 2023, the soda ash market has undergone many changes, both in supply and demand, and in the market competition pattern. As an important part of three acids and two alkalis, soda ash is known as the "mother of chemical industry". Because of its high degree of standardization and relatively easy preservation, there are more participants in soda ash futures and spot. On the whole, the changes of soda ash market in 2023 include the following five aspects:

　　First, the price fluctuation cycle of soda ash is shortened, and the price elasticity is intensified. Taking the price fluctuation of 1000 yuan/ton as the boundary, it will take several months or even years for soda ash to get out of a 1000 yuan/ton band before 2022, and the soda ash market will experience two waves of 1,000 yuan rise and two waves of 1,000 yuan fall in 2023. In 2023, the huge fluctuation of soda ash showed the characteristics of short-term strong outbreak, and most of the thousand-point market in the year was completed within 1.5-2.0 months. This change has an obvious impact on market participants. If we can’t change our thinking quickly, both spot and futures operations are prone to losses.

　　The picture shows the trend of domestic soda ash futures and spot prices from 2021 to 2023 (unit: RMB/ton).

　　Second, the supply of soda ash continued to increase, and the production capacity increased to a new high. In 2023, the domestic output of soda ash was about 32.54 million tons, an increase of 3.34 million tons, with an increase of 11.44%. This output accounts for nearly half of the global soda production, and has reached a record high. The sharp increase of soda ash production in 2023 is mainly affected by the release of daily production capacity and the increase of operating rate. In 2023, the domestic soda production capacity will increase by 6.3 million tons.Head enterprises represented by Jinshan, Henan Province continued to expand their production capacity. In 2023, the profits of ammonia-alkali method and combined alkali method (double tons) were 876 yuan/ton and 1387 yuan/ton respectively, which stimulated the operating rate to increase by 2.78% to 88.04% during the year.

　　Third, the concentration of soda ash upstream is further improved. The biggest change of soda ash market in 2023 is the sharp increase of industry concentration, and the leading enterprises’ control over prices is obviously enhanced. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, by the end of 2023, the effective production capacity of domestic soda ash was about 37.8 million tons, among which the top three enterprises (Henan Jinshan, Boyuan Yingen,The total production capacity is 13.2 million tons, accounting for 34.92%; The total production capacity of the top ten enterprises is 23.7 million tons, accounting for 62.70%. If the production capacity of the same group is combined, the top five enterprises in Henan Jinshan, Zhongyan Group,The total production capacity is about 22.1 million tons, accounting for 58.47%; By the end of 2022, the production capacity of the top five soda enterprises accounted for about 51.11%. Not only is the number improved, but Jinshan, Henan Province is the lowest-cost soda enterprise in China and the lowest-cost chemical soda enterprise in China. The market share of low-cost enterprises has increased, and the impact of the change in operating rate on the market has greatly increased. In addition, China National Salt Group, which ranks in the top five, is the main producer of soda ash delivery products in China, and the domestic soda ash production cost is high. The ecological environment in Qinghai is fragile, environmental protection problems are prone to repeated fermentation, the cost of seawater is high, the price sensitivity is high, and it is easy to reduce production after losses.

　　Fourth, the downstream demand of soda ash reached a record high. In 2023, the domestic total consumption of soda ash was about 31.32 million tons, an increase of nearly 2 million tons compared with 2022. The main increase comes from the increase of photovoltaic glass production. From January to November 2023, the domestic photovoltaic glass output was 22,593,300 tons, an increase of 8,119,300 tons compared with the same period of last year, with a growth rate of 56.10%. It is estimated that the domestic photovoltaic glass output will be 25 million tons in 2023, an increase of 8.8 million tons compared with the same period of last year, and the demand for soda ash will increase by 1.76 million tons. In addition to the impact of the increase in photovoltaic glass production, the increase in lithium carbonate production also brought about some increase.

　　Fifth, soda ash imports hit a new high for many years. In 2023, the export volume of soda ash was about 1.47 million tons, and the import volume was about 770,000 tons, which reached a new high in more than ten years. In 2023, overseas soda production capacity increased slightly, but the growth rate of overseas demand was low. In 2023, the center of gravity of domestic soda ash price moved up, and the spot price rose above 3,000 yuan/ton for many times. After the price difference between domestic and foreign markets was opened, leading glass enterprises and large traders actively imported natural alkali with lower price, mainly American alkali and Turkish alkali. According to the CIF price of US$ 210/ton and the exchange rate of US$ 7.10 against RMB, the total cost of importing trona (including customs duties, value-added tax and transportation fees) for glass enterprises is only RMB 2,000/ton. When the domestic price rises above 2600 yuan/ton, and the price difference is greater than that of 600 yuan/ton, even considering the risk of falling spot price, the import is still profitable.

　　Second, the change and invariability of soda ash market in 2024

　　1. Constant: High volatility continues.

　　The constant price of soda ash, a basic chemical, will be its frequent change, and the high fluctuation characteristics of soda ash will continue in 2024. Soda soda, a non-hazardous chemical, has a high degree of standardization, so it has been widely concerned by market funds. In addition to institutional investors, in recent years, soda production, consumption and trade enterprises have also actively participated in the futures market, and the current institutions are constantly emerging and their influence on the market is increasing. In the constant game of the market, the price fluctuation of soda ash is also obviously intensified, and the high fluctuation will continue in the future.

　　Due to the high fluctuation of soda ash, there are obvious hedging opportunities in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. From 2021 to now, domestic spot price and futures of Shahe heavy soda ashThe price difference of the contract fluctuates obviously, and most of the futures are discounted to the spot, but there have also been several waves of futures premium spot trends. Under the pessimistic expectation, the soda ash futures price in 2023 is mostly discounted in cash, but two waves of soda ash surge in the year make the basis quickly repaired. At present, the soda ash market is still characterized by a large discount on spot futures, and downstream enterprises should actively pay attention to the opportunity to buy soda ash near the cost price in the distant month for hedging. Upstream enterprises rely on spot prices to sell recent contracts for hedging.

　　2. unchanged: the expectation of oversupply is hard to change.

　　Since March 2023, the main trading logic of soda ash market has been the expectation of oversupply brought by production capacity. In 2023, the domestic soda production capacity increased by 6.3 million tons, and there are still nearly 3 million tons of production capacity to be released in 2024. According to the production pace of soda ash, the oversupply of soda ash in 2024 is expected to be obvious, especially in the first half of the year, there are few maintenance arrangements for enterprises, and the supply pressure brought by new production capacity will have a greater impact on prices, and the trend of SA2405 is downward.

　　3. No change: the maintenance effect will continue to ferment.

　　In 2023, the soda ash market fluctuated greatly, and besides the impact of the release rhythm of new capacity, the phased maintenance of old equipment also had a more obvious impact on the price. The surge of soda ash from July to August, 2023 was driven by "delayed launch of new production capacity" and "large-scale overhaul of old equipment", and the surge of soda ash in November, 2023 basically continued the dual drive. Looking forward to 2024, the spot and futures prices of soda ash will face obvious price pressure in the first half of the year, with the increase in imports and the release of new capacity at the beginning of the year, and the maintenance in the first half of the year is usually less. If the price drops sharply in the first half of the year, especially after falling below the cost of ammonia-alkali process, the overhaul of soda ash market will increase obviously, and it is likely to exceed the supply increment brought by new production capacity. From the time point of view, the large-scale overhaul of soda ash in 2024 may take place in June-August, and the double pressure of high temperature superposition and falling prices in summer will promote the overhaul of soda ash enterprises. If the maintenance happens as scheduled, the price of soda ash is likely to rebound in stages.

　　The table shows the influence matrix of soda plant commissioning and maintenance on the price.

　　4, unchanged: photovoltaic glass brings incremental demand.

　　In 2023, 19 domestic photovoltaic glass production lines will be added, and the daily melting capacity will increase by 19,750 t/d to 99,810 t/d. In 2023, the incremental demand of photovoltaic glass for soda ash will be nearly 1.8 million tons. In 2024, domestic photovoltaic glass will still be in the cycle of capacity expansion, and the demand for soda ash will increase, which will still be the main source of incremental demand for soda ash. Affected by the early warning system of photovoltaic glass production capacity and the slowdown of demand growth, after considering the maintenance and other factors, it is estimated that the domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity will increase by 20,000-25,000 t/d to 120,000-125,000 t/d in 2024, the annual output will increase by about 6 million tons, and the demand for soda ash will increase by 1.2 million tons.

　　5. Constant: Downstream demand remains rigid.

　　In 2023, the market of soda ash is mainly driven by the supply side, and the demand side is relatively less sensitive to the price. The downstream of heavy alkali is mainly used for float glass and photovoltaic glass, while the downstream demand of light alkali is relatively dispersed but closely related to food, clothing, housing and transportation. Before the price of soda ash rose above 3000 yuan/ton, the demand of heavy alkali and light alkali changed little; When the price rises above 3000 yuan/ton, the downstream of heavy alkali will obviously reduce the purchase, and some downstream of light alkali will reduce the production to reduce the loss. Because the demand for soda ash is relatively rigid, changes in the supply side will lead to huge price fluctuations. With the continuous increase of photovoltaic glass production, the proportion of heavy alkali demand will continue to increase, and the change of soda ash demand side will be smaller.

　　6. Change: non-traditional demand or exceeding expectations

　　In 2024, the demand for soda ash is expected to increase by 2 million tons, which is close to that in 2023. The incremental demand brought by photovoltaic glass is slightly reduced, and the demand for float glass is slightly increased. Represented by lithium carbonateThe demand for alkali will increase, and new fields such as nano-zinc oxide will create some new demand areas. On the whole, the demand for soda ash in 2024 is not pessimistic, and we will continue to pay attention to the production capacity of photovoltaic glass and the non-traditional demand changes represented by lithium carbonate in the later period.

　　7. Change: the end of the high-profit pattern

　　On the whole, the pattern of soda ash market in 2024 is set to be loose supply, especially in the first half of the year. In 2024, the expectation of oversupply in soda ash market will be fulfilled with a high probability, and the price center may be significantly lower than that in 2023. According to the average price of 2000 yuan/ton of heavy alkali, the average profit of ammonia-alkali process may drop to 200-300 yuan/ton in 2024, which is obviously lower than the average profit of 876 yuan/ton in 2023. In 2024, soda ash spot enterprises may experience staged losses, and individual enterprises may withdraw from the market.

　　8. Change: The overall operating rate of the industry will decline.

　　Under the background of production capacity, it is expected that the price of soda ash will drop and the profit will drop in 2024, and the industry operating rate will decline. Among them, the low-cost natural alkali may maintain a high operating rate, and the operating rate of high-cost combined alkali and ammonia-alkali method may show a downward trend. Periodic losses and maintenance may lead to the operating rate of soda ash industry falling below 80%.

　　9. Change: The import volume may be significantly reduced.

　　In 2023, the import of soda ash increased sharply, and the core reason was the expansion of internal and external price difference. In 2024, the operation center of soda ash price will move down and the import window will be closed. It is estimated that exports will drop significantly in 2024, and the annual export volume may drop to around 400,000 tons, which is lower than 770,000 tons in 2023.

　　10. Change: The mode of trade may continue to change.

　　Influenced by the opportunity brought by the fluctuation of soda ash price, a large number of current institutions have emerged in the domestic soda ash market since 2021, among which Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai-based institutions are deeply involved. With the advantages of capital, talents and information, current merchants have become one of the leading forces in soda pricing. Through the combination of existing machines, the spot price has become an important way of soda ash spot circulation. Leading float glass enterprises, such as Qibin and Xinyi, also began to use the point price to purchase. Under the impact of the new model, the trade pattern of soda ash has changed greatly, especially in Shahe and Hubei, two delivery warehouses.

　　11. Change: the direction or change of goods.

　　In 2023, a large amount of new capacity of soda ash was released, among which 4 million tons of new capacity of Yuanxing Energy and 2 million tons of new capacity of Jinshan, Henan Province had the most significant impact. Due to the limited consumption of soda ash in northwest China, most of the soda ash in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai needs to be sold abroad. With the continuous release of new production capacity, the trade pattern of domestic soda ash market will also change in the future. The low-cost Yuanxing trona will mainly circulate in the northern region, and Henan Jinshan will further enhance its market share in Central China and East China. The original soda enterprises with North China and Central China as the main consumption areas will pay more attention to the regional markets such as East China and South China in the future, and the competition will be more intense.

　　12. Change: Downstream pricing power will be significantly enhanced.

　　In 2024, the price of soda ash shows a downward trend as a whole, the upstream pricing power will be weakened, the downstream pricing power will be enhanced, and the profit of the industrial chain is expected to be reconstructed. In the downward price stage, the downstream wait-and-see mood may intensify, leading to "negative feedback" in the spot market. When the price of soda ash falls to near the cost of ammonia and alkali, downstream enterprises may increase their replenishment efforts, and then the inventory will be transferred from upstream to downstream. Benefiting from the downward trend of raw material prices, the profit of float glass in 2024 may be slightly better than that in 2023. (Author:Futures)