Institution： The strong rise of oil and fat is expected to be mainly driven by the strong logic of palm oil in the medium and long term.

　　Today, the domestic oil meal has increased its position in an all-round way. The strength of soybean meal has a certain component of Trump’s coming to power, but the strong rise of oil is expected to be mainly driven by the strong logic of palm oil in the medium and long term, because today it is still led by palm oil. Yesterday afternoon to night, the horse palm disk continued to rise.

　　The short-term bullish news mainly includes: Yesterday’s news showed that India’s palm oil imports increased by 59% to 840,000 tons in October, due to the demand of Diwali in India. With the recent spread of soybean and palm oil, the increase of India’s imports in October has weakened the market’s concern about the international palm oil demand in the later period. In addition, an industry conference will be held in Indonesia on November 6-8, and it is expected that there will be many views. In addition, the international price is strong recently, and the market predicts that Indonesia’s palm oil export tax will continue to increase in December, and the export tariff may be raised by two grades. On November 11th (next Monday), MPOB will release the supply and demand data of horse palm in October, and it is estimated that the inventory will decrease slightly from the previous month.

　　The actual supply and demand neutrality of international palm oil is slightly tight, and the recent strength is mainly in the long-term logic of trading. That is to say, November-February is the seasonal production reduction season, and the stocking of Ramadan in India will overlap with the end of the production reduction season in February-March, 2005. B40 in Indonesia will be implemented in January, 2005, and LEVY in Indonesia’s exports may need to be raised in the first and second quarters of 2005. Before the medium and long-term logic has not changed, there is no reason for palm oil to call back. In November, the logic of origin gradually entered the redemption period. In the short term, we should pay attention to the expected changes of horse brown inventory in November.